May Priority Report

If your Toronto condo is sitting on the market without serious offers, or your rental unit is taking longer to lease than it ever has before, the answer is not that your property is the problem. The answer is supply, and the numbers behind it are more significant than most condo owners have been told. Michael Prior, founder of The Prior Group at Revel Realty, head coach at Revel Realty, and one of the top real estate agents serving Little Italy, Seaton Village, College and Ossington, Junction Wallace-Emerson, Roncesvalles, Corso Italia, and surrounding neighbourhoods, has broken down exactly what happened, why, and what the timeline looks like for a meaningful recovery.

The short version: the GTA built an enormous volume of condos in response to a real housing shortage, the demand side did not keep pace, and the overhang of that supply is still working its way through the market.

The Numbers Behind the Oversupply

Prior grounds his analysis in specific registration data that most condo owners have never seen presented in a single place.

In 2023, over 24,000 condo units were registered in the GTA. In 2024, that number climbed to over 29,000. In 2025, the projected figure tops 30,000 units. “That is a ton,” Prior notes, and the understated delivery does not soften the reality of what those numbers mean for anyone trying to sell or lease a condo in Toronto right now.

To understand why these figures matter, it helps to understand what registration means in practical terms. When a pre-construction condo registers, it transitions from a future asset on paper to a physical unit that either needs to be occupied, leased, or sold. Every registered unit that hits the resale or rental market adds to the inventory that existing condo owners are competing against. When 30,000 units register in a single year, the competitive pressure on every individual listing, regardless of neighbourhood, increases dramatically.

The developers themselves have recognized the problem. “It looks like the developers have already figured out that they’ve oversupplied,” Prior explains. “They’re not selling. A lot of developers are having to buy back their pre-sales off of people that default, taking their deposits and then trying to sell themselves with little success.” When developers are struggling to move inventory at scale, individual sellers and landlords are operating in the same unfavourable conditions, often without the pricing flexibility or holding capacity that a large developer has.

The Pendulum Is Swinging, Just Slowly

The forward-looking data in Prior’s analysis is where condo owners who are asking about recovery timelines will want to pay close attention.

The 2026 projection for new condo registrations in the GTA is approximately 17,000 units. That is roughly half of the 2025 volume. The developers have pulled back, as developers always do when the market signals that supply has outpaced demand. But the lag between that pullback and the point where supply tightens enough to restore pricing power is not immediate.

“The pendulum swings, but it swings slowly,” Prior says. That is the most important sentence in the entire video for condo owners expecting a quick turnaround. The reduction in new supply beginning in 2026 is a meaningful positive development. It is not a switch that flips the market overnight. The existing inventory still needs to be absorbed, and absorption happens at the pace of actual transactions, not projections.

Prior’s honest timeline for when condo owners might see values return to where they were a few years ago is late 2026 into 2027. “It could be into late 2026, 2027 when the supply is getting eaten up by the crazy demand.” That demand is real and it is not going away. Toronto’s population continues to grow, the underlying need for housing has not been resolved, and when the supply overhang clears, the demand that has been building underneath it will resurface. The question for condo owners is whether they can hold comfortably until that moment arrives.

What Else Is in the Mix

Prior acknowledges that the supply story, while the dominant factor, is not the only variable affecting the Toronto condo market right now.

The tariff situation between Canada and the United States is introducing economic uncertainty that affects buyer confidence and investment appetite. The broader Canada-US relationship and its implications for the Canadian economy are adding a layer of caution to the decision-making of buyers who might otherwise be entering the market. These are macro factors that operate on top of the local supply dynamics, and they complicate any simple prediction about when exactly the market stabilizes.

For condo owners in neighbourhoods like Liberty Village, Mimico and the downtown core, where much of the investor and first-time buyer demand is concentrated, these macro factors are worth understanding even if they are not the primary driver of current conditions.

What Condo Owners Should Do Right Now

For condo owners who need to sell or lease in the current environment, the strategic reality is clear. You are competing against an unusually large volume of inventory, including units being sold by developers who have both the motivation and the resources to price aggressively. Presentation, pricing accuracy, and representation quality are more consequential in this environment than at any point in the recent past.

For condo owners who can afford to hold, Prior’s data suggests patience is the better financial decision. The supply picture improves meaningfully in 2026 and continues to tighten as the development pipeline thins further. The demand side is structurally intact. The math points toward a recovery, and the timeline Prior identifies, late 2026 into 2027 for meaningful value restoration, gives owners who can hold that long a reasonable basis for doing so.

Either way, the decision should be made with a clear understanding of the specific conditions affecting your building, your unit type, and your neighbourhood, not just the broad market headlines. Leading agents in Toronto’s west end who are active in these markets every day can provide that level of specificity in a way that no general market report can.

Work With Michael Prior and The Prior Group

The Prior Group at Revel Realty works with condo owners, investors, and buyers across Little Italy, Seaton Village, College and Ossington, Junction Wallace-Emerson, Roncesvalles, Corso Italia, and surrounding neighbourhoods. If you want a clear-eyed read on what the current supply situation means for your specific unit and what your options look like, reach out directly.

Call Michael Prior: 647-376-7367 Email: mike@thepriorgroup.com Visit: thepriorgroup.com