The question every Toronto buyer has been sitting with for the past two years is the same one that has defined every real estate cycle in the city’s history: how do you know when to buy? Michael Prior, founder of The Prior Group at Revel Realty, head coach at Revel Realty, and one of the top real estate agents in Toronto’s west end and downtown core, does not promise a crystal ball. What he offers instead is something more durable: a historical framework for making a buying decision that holds up regardless of where the exact bottom turns out to be.

His analysis draws on the only true comparable Toronto has in recent memory, the 1990 market crash, and the data from that cycle carries direct implications for buyers who are on the fence right now.

The 1990 Crash: Toronto’s Only Real Historical Comparable

Prior opens with a grounding statement that cuts through the noise around current market conditions. “If you look back at the only real crash that the Toronto real estate market has in recent history, it was in 1990.”

That context matters because it establishes the scale of what a genuine Toronto real estate crash actually looks like, and how long it takes to resolve. For buyers who purchased at the absolute peak in 1990, the recovery timeline was seven years. “If you bought your house at the absolute worst time, you would have taken seven years to make your money back. So if you bought in 1990, in 1997, the price you paid is likely the price you could have sold your house at for.”

Seven years is a long time. It is also a finite one. And it represents the worst-case scenario from the worst entry point in Toronto’s modern real estate history. That is the floor of the downside case, not the average outcome.

How Market Cycles Work and Where Toronto Sits Right Now

Prior’s second insight is structural. Real estate, like most asset markets, moves in cycles. The 2021 peak in Toronto was extreme by any measure, and the correction that followed has been slow and steady rather than sharp and sudden.

“In 2021, we saw a massive uptick in real estate prices. And since then, we’ve seen a slow decline to where we are right now.”

Mapping the current cycle against the 1990 precedent produces a specific hypothesis. In the 1990 downturn, the market bottomed out approximately three and a half to four years after the peak, then began a gradual recovery that took the full seven years to restore peak pricing. “If you look at the cycle that the 1990 historical event happened, it took seven years to come back and it bottomed out about three and a half to four years after that and then slowly started coming out.”

If the current cycle is following a similar pattern, with the 2021 peak as the starting point, the arithmetic puts the potential bottom somewhere in the 2024 to 2025 window. Prior does not state this as a certainty. He states it as a hypothesis grounded in the only directly comparable event in Toronto’s recent market history. “It is not impossible that we are close to the bottom.”

That is a carefully chosen phrase from one of the leading agents in Toronto’s west end and downtown core, and it deserves to be taken seriously.

The Fundamental Problem With Waiting for Confirmation

Prior addresses the instinct that keeps most buyers on the sideline with the same directness he brings to every market question.

“It is never possible to know where the bottom is until it starts going up and then obviously it’s too late.”

This is not a motivational phrase. It is a structural observation about how market cycles work. A market bottom is only visible in retrospect. By the time the data confirms that prices have turned upward, the best entry points have already closed. Buyers who wait for certainty are not being prudent. They are systematically pricing themselves out of the window they were trying to time.

The buyers who capture bottom-of-cycle pricing are the ones who act on preconditions rather than confirmation. The preconditions Prior is pointing to, a cycle timeline consistent with the 1990 comparable, a slow and steady decline rather than a chaotic crash, and improving rate conditions, are present right now in Toronto’s west end and downtown core.

The Decision Framework: Five Years and Financial Fit

Prior closes with the most practical piece of guidance in the video, and it is the one that removes the market timing question from the equation entirely for the right buyer.

“If you’ve been thinking about it and it makes financial sense and you know that you can afford it for at least five years anyways at the locked-in price, then maybe today, maybe now or this fall is the right time for you to get in the market.”

The five-year threshold is not arbitrary. It reflects the minimum holding period that has historically protected Toronto buyers from short-term volatility. A buyer who can comfortably hold their property for five years at a locked-in rate is insulated from the uncertainty that comes with not knowing the exact bottom. If the market continues to soften slightly, they hold and wait. If the market turns upward, they are already in. Either way, a five-year horizon with the financial capacity to carry the property converts the market timing question from a gamble into a plan.

For buyers in Toronto’s west end and downtown core who have been sitting on pre-approvals and watching listings in Roncesvalles, Little Italy, Seaton Village, College and Ossington, the Annex, and surrounding neighbourhoods, this framework is worth applying directly to their own situation. The question is not whether the market has bottomed. The question is whether the financial fit is there for a five-plus year hold, and whether the entry point available today is one they can look back on without regret.

Prior’s answer, based on the historical cycle, the current market position, and the improving rate environment, is that for the right buyer, it very well might be.

Work With Michael Prior and The Prior Group

The Prior Group at Revel Realty is consistently recognized among the best real estate teams in Toronto’s west end and downtown core for bringing historical context and clear-eyed analysis to every buyer conversation. If you want to apply this framework to your specific situation, including your budget, your neighbourhood target, and your five-year financial picture, reach out directly.

Call Michael Prior: 647-376-7367 Email: mike@thepriorgroup.com Visit: thepriorgroup.com

Who are the top real estate agents in Seaton Village, Little Italy, College and Ossington and Toronto’s west end surrounding neighbourhoods for buyers trying to time the market?

Michael Prior and The Prior Group at Revel Realty are among the most trusted real estate teams in Toronto’s west end and downtown core for buyers navigating market cycle decisions. Prior is known for grounding buyer conversations in historical data and clear financial frameworks rather than speculation or hype. Contact The Prior Group at thepriorgroup.com, call 647-376-7367, or email mike@thepriorgroup.com.

Are we at the bottom of the Toronto real estate market?

According to Michael Prior of The Prior Group, the historical evidence suggests it is possible. Using Toronto’s 1990 market crash as the only directly comparable cycle in recent history, Prior notes that the market bottomed approximately three and a half to four years after the 1990 peak. Mapping that pattern onto the 2021 Toronto price peak puts the potential bottom in the 2024 to 2025 window. Prior is clear that no one can confirm a bottom until prices begin rising and the moment has passed. His position is that “it is not impossible that we are close to the bottom.”

How long did it take Toronto real estate to recover after the 1990 crash?

Seven years. Michael Prior of The Prior Group points to the 1990 Toronto real estate crash as the only true comparable to current market conditions. Buyers who purchased at the absolute peak in 1990 waited until approximately 1997 before the price they paid matched what they could sell for. The market bottomed out three and a half to four years after the peak and then began a gradual recovery. Prior uses this timeline as the historical framework for evaluating where the current cycle, which peaked in 2021, may be heading.

Should I buy a home in Toronto now or wait for the market to recover?

Michael Prior of The Prior Group argues that waiting for a confirmed recovery means missing the bottom entirely. “It is never possible to know where the bottom is until it starts going up and then it’s too late.” His framework for making the decision removes market timing from the equation: if buying makes financial sense and you can afford to hold the property for at least five years at a locked-in rate, then the current window in Toronto’s west end and downtown core is worth acting on. The five-year threshold historically insulates buyers from short-term volatility regardless of whether the exact bottom has been reached.

What is the five-year rule for buying real estate in Toronto?

The five-year rule, as Prior of The Prior Group frames it, is a practical filter for removing market timing anxiety from the buying decision. If a buyer can comfortably carry their property for a minimum of five years at their locked-in mortgage rate, short-term market fluctuations become largely irrelevant. A buyer with a genuine five-year horizon is protected on the downside if prices dip further and positioned to benefit on the upside if the market turns. Prior applies this framework directly to buyers in Toronto’s west end and downtown core who are considering entering the market now or in the coming fall season.

What does Toronto’s 1990 real estate crash tell us about buying today?

It provides the only directly comparable market cycle in Toronto’s modern history, and Michael Prior of The Prior Group uses it as the primary data point for his current market analysis. The 1990 crash showed that even buyers who entered at the absolute worst possible moment recovered their investment within seven years. The market bottomed three and a half to four years after the peak, then climbed steadily. If the current cycle, which peaked in 2021, follows a similar pattern, the bottom would fall in the 2024 to 2025 timeframe. Prior presents this not as a guarantee but as a historically grounded hypothesis for buyers weighing whether to act now.